The proliferation of illegal small arms and light weapons in and around the European Union

Instability, organised crime and terrorist groups

Although the end of the Cold War has significantly reduced the threat of nuclear war, it has also resulted in an increase in the number of local wars and civil conflicts throughout the world fought primarily with small arms and light weapons. Large quantities of small arms are in circulation today moving from one armed conflict to another, a process abetted by brokers, local arms dealers and certain producer governments. Weapons are being transferred regularly to regions of conflict in Africa, Asia and the Middle East, from areas with weak export controls and large surplus stocks, such as the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. However, more recently, traditionally safer areas such as Western Europe have also been adversely affected by the spread of small arms. Although the influx of weapons into the European Union (EU) is not overwhelming, there is a regular trickle of small arms primarily from the Balkan region, as well as from Eastern Europe, which could increase as the EU and the Schengen Rim both expand to the east and south-east. The collapse of the Soviet Union, the end of the Warsaw Pact and the wars in former Yugoslavia have resulted in a relaxation of border controls and an excess supply of light weapons, some of which have found their way into Europe. Small arms and light weapons (SALW) have fed the local criminal underworld as well as European terrorist groups, such as the Real IRA, thus contributing to the undermining of West European public safety.

The EU looks set for significant expansion, which will compound the difficulties facing the control of illegal weapons proliferation, especially given that in some of the potential candidate countries, e.g. Cyprus, the components of former Yugoslavia, and to a lesser extent Hungary, organised crime is particularly strong. Moreover, as the EU expands, its outer rim will be policed and protected by state security forces and customs officials that may be less well-trained and capable overall than their current counterparts. Before too long, the EU might border unstable regions in former Yugoslavia and Albania. Although military conflict has been brought to an end in Kosovo and Bosnia, and former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic has been ousted from power in Belgrade, the political situation in the region remains highly unstable. A renewal of violence and new demand for light weapons cannot be ruled out. Furthermore, the end of the wars in former Yugoslavia has resulted in widespread availability of cheap but powerful light weapons, many of which have ended up in the hands of local organised crime groups. These groups are now becoming increasingly powerful, as they forge links with well-established groups on the other side of the Adriatic. The spread of crime and instability, especially to the southern regions of Europe, could lead to further proliferation of light weapons in the region and eventually into the EU. The potential for a future light weapons proliferation crisis within the EU which is normally considered a secure area, therefore needs to be assessed.

This project has involved research on the proliferation of arms in two EU countries which are geographically close to the areas of instability - Germany and Italy - and in two which are further away from the areas of tension but could also become affected by the spread of arms - the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. In addition, research has been conducted in two EU candidate countries, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria, in order to assess the implications of their future EU membership for European public safety. Finally, particular attention has been devoted to the examination of terrorist organisations in Europe that still have important arsenals, and which represent a threat to their country's security. Information has been gathered from a series of personal interviews with relevant public officials, experts and journalists, as well as from official statistics and documents, newspapers and specialised journals.