Armed violence in the Terai

Since the signing of a comprehensive peace agreement in 2006 Nepal has been in a delicate state of peace. While most international and domestic attention is devoted to the political situation in Kathmandu, one region, the Terai, has experienced a post-war rise in violence and a proliferation of armed groups. Since 2007, the Terai has witnessed bombings, shootings, abductions, extortion, armed crime and domestic violence making it the most insecure region in Nepal.

This report is the result of research conducted by Saferworld, Small Arms Survey and the Kathmandu-based organisations Interdisciplinary Analysts (IDA) and the Nepal Madhes Foundation (NEMAF). The report seeks to explain these trends and give an impression of the state of security in the Terai during 2010. It finds that while violence continues to take place, several indicators and widespread popular perception suggest that the overall security situation is improving. Based upon the results of a household survey, focus group discussions and interviews conducted in 2010, most people feel that their community is safe, it is safer than the previous year and they are not concerned that someone in their household would become a victim of crime. Research also suggests that neither weapons ownership nor crime rates are as high as popularly perceived and, in fact, are surprisingly low.

However, the report also underscores that optimism must be tempered by caution. A lack of accurate and reliable data and monthly fluctuations in the number of violent incidents make it hard to assess whether security is definitively improving. The improvement in perceptions of security is also not uniform – women and those living in the border areas are far more likely to feel unsafe at home or in the community. Most importantly, research found that many of the factors that drive insecurity are also still in place and remain salient. So long as phenomena like the proliferation of armed groups, the politicisation of crime, the criminalisation of politics, socioeconomic exclusion, limited border controls and weak state security provision remain unaddressed, any improvement in security is conditional and prone to reversal. When viewed within the wider context of political uncertainty and events such as the deadline for a new constitution (28 May 2011) and the rehabilitation of former combatants, the ongoing salience of these and other factors helps to explain why this report found that optimism over improved security was accompanied by an unease that the situation may turn for the worse with relative speed.