South Sudan on the brink of renewed civil war: Urgent action needed to de-escalate tensions and protect civilians 

Longer-term signs that all may not be well in South Sudan have been brought into stark focus over recent weeks. In early March, tensions erupted into armed violence in Upper Nile State’s Nasir County between the local Nuer community defence group, the ‘White Army’ - loyal to the First Vice President Riek Machar, and the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF), followed by aerial bombardment by the Government (including reports of the use of indiscriminate barrel bombs). Serious political developments have also seen the recent house arrest of First Vice President Riek Machar and multiple cabinet reshuffles by President Salva Kiir, while tensions reportedly remain high among political elites along several fault lines. Analysts and the UN have been sounding the alarm about the risk this could deteriorate into full-blown conflict yet again, with civilians bearing the highest costs. The time to act to urgently de-escalate the situation is now.

The people of South Sudan have been waiting in vain to see the implementation of the 2018 peace agreement; yet they are now facing an increasingly volatile situation which threatens a return to widespread armed conflict. The risks of further escalation, including ethnic mobilisation in response to threats to local populations, are extremely high. Meanwhile, the civil war and humanitarian crisis in neighbouring Sudan increasingly threatens to merge with dynamics in South Sudan (particularly along the border), while the collapse of South Sudan into renewed violent conflict would have dire consequences for humanitarian needs in Sudan.

Action is needed by all parties with influence over the government and opposition groups to find space to immediately halt escalating tensions and the risk of widespread violence and start making meaningful steps towards sustainable, inclusive peace.

Civilians, already bearing the brunt of dramatic aid cuts, are getting caught up in the fighting, resulting in significant casualties and displacement. The United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) must be ready to fully implement (and extend) its (already robust) protection mandate and step in to ensure civilians are spared from further violence. The international aid sector (including donors, INGOs and UN agencies) must urgently pre-position assets, contextual knowledge and personnel (both in preparation for the rainy season and violent conflict) to be ready to respond. This must centre and support the essential role of South Sudanese responders, national NGOs and community-based organisations in providing lifesaving support, as well as fund urgent sub-national and locally-led peacebuilding initiatives to stop further escalation of localised violence and repair the frayed social fabric.

The conflict's regional dimensions, with the reported involvement of Sudanese conflict parties, and the deployment of the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) to support the government in Juba, further reinforces the need for urgent action. The fragmentation of the country and descent into ethnic conflict with regional backers on various sides is a no-win situation for the people of South Sudan and neighbouring countries. An alternative way forward is desperately needed. 

Photo: UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General visiting Lankien following the previous peace deal. Credit UNMISS